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Macron wins the French Presidential elections: what to expect next Read more >>> Demographics will decide the world’s history Read more >>> George Soros secretly rushes to Italy as NGOs activity in the Mediterranean now face political and judicial scrutiny Read more >>> It is not the problem that bothers us but the perception of it Read more >>> The diaspora of young Italians Read more >>>

Macron wins the French Presidential elections: what to expect next

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By Ecole polytechnique Université Paris [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
photo Emmanuel Macron [CC BY-SA 2.0 ], via Wikimedia Commons
Consider how Hollande’s victory was hailed in 2012 by the media: a man of change,1)François Hollande:“Change everywhere and now!”, Le Point 2012-03-01,destiny,2)Hollande vows to change destiny of France, France24 2012-01-23. a new start,3)French President François Hollande promises a new start for Europe, The Guardian 2012-05-06.for Europe and the return of growth.4)After meeting with Merkel, Hollande pusher for growth, CNN 2012-05-16.
The reality turned out not to be even remotely close to the promises: stagnating economy, no wages growth, rising unemployment and debt, both public and private.

Emmanuel Macron was the co-protagonist of the economic decline of France as Minister of the Economy under Hollande, yet 65% of the French voters opted to give the former a second run, endowing him as President with more powers, blaming entirely the latter, who ended the presidency with an abysmal approval rate of 4%,5)Mon Dieu, Hollande’s approval rating is at 4%. Foreign Policy 2016-11-02.

Just like Hollande’s promise to reform the European Union was the “eurobond”,6)Hollande pusher case for eurobonds, The Guardian 2012-05-22.Macron’s goal is the “fiscal union”.7)French economy minister calls for fiscal union in eurozone, The Telegraph 2015-08-31.Since Hollande was met with a deadly “nein” from Merkel and the Bundesbank, we see no reason why Macron could be more successful: while France is the second biggest economy of the Eurozone and thus its size and importance could provide sufficient leverage in negotiations, Hollande’s unwillingness to threaten to leave the negotiation table proved to be his downfall. Similarly, Macron can only be successful in his reform bid when he is ready to announce to dump the failing EU project if he can’t have it his way. As it is, his “Europe first” approach leaves no room for that, ensuring a failure equal to that of his predecessor.
The “fiscal union’’ is Macron’s only major noteworthy item on an otherwise incredibly vague political and
economic program. Hollande’s presidency was plagued with regular attacks by Islamist terrorists, yet Macron did not touch the topic during his political campaign, with the exception of the brush-off “there’s no such thing as French culture’’.8)Emmanuel Macron assume : “Il n’y a pas UNE culture française !”, Profession Spectacle 2017-02-25.

References   [ + ]

1. François Hollande:“Change everywhere and now!”, Le Point 2012-03-01,
2. Hollande vows to change destiny of France, France24 2012-01-23.
3. French President François Hollande promises a new start for Europe, The Guardian 2012-05-06.
4. After meeting with Merkel, Hollande pusher for growth, CNN 2012-05-16.
5. Mon Dieu, Hollande’s approval rating is at 4%. Foreign Policy 2016-11-02.
6. Hollande pusher case for eurobonds, The Guardian 2012-05-22.
7. French economy minister calls for fiscal union in eurozone, The Telegraph 2015-08-31.
8. Emmanuel Macron assume : “Il n’y a pas UNE culture française !”, Profession Spectacle 2017-02-25.

Demographics will decide the world’s history

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Demographics will decide the world’s history within the next decades. 2045 is the year in which, as the U.S. Census Bureau projects, Whites will become a minority in their own country. The same trend is observable in Europe. In the eighties these continents began their transformation from relatively monolithic into multi-ethnic or multicultural societies, which resulted in the rapid increase in the Latino population in the US, and the influx of immigrants from Africa and Asia in Europe. The academia and the ruling establishment believed that the different ethnic groups that are arriving in Europe and the US would blend into the indigenous communities and dissolve within one or two generations, adopting the superior Western values and norms because these are allegedly universal.

The native European population growth will soon reach its peak and then the reverse trend, already observable in Russia and Poland, will set in. The population of the Netherlands and Germany is only expanding due to the rising number of second generation non-Western migrants. In no time (historically speaking) will the European ethnic composition resemble that of Brazil or India.


George Soros secretly rushes to Italy as NGOs activity in the Mediterranean now face political and judicial scrutiny

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Photo taken by [http://www.lensamalaysia.com/forum/showpost.php?s=ac6be7d441f75c012a1745d701f65d4d&p=47697&postcount=13 Jeff Ooi]. Posted to LensaMalaysia.com, which licenses all images under the Creative Commons Attribution Licence
photo George Soros via Wikimedia Commons
In the past few weeks, the transport of migrants from the African shores has become a case of national importance for Italy, and is now under investigation from the prosecutor of Catania, who recently testified to the Defence Committee of the Italian Senate1)Traffickers may pay some NGOs, Catania prosecutor, ANSA med and will meet soon with the Superior Council of the Magistrates.
Harsh criticism of the activities of the NGOs has come from opposition parties Forza Italia,2)Caso ONG, la ricostruzione di Maurizio Gasparri , Youtube Lega Nord3)Migranti, Salvini al governo “Fuori il dossier scafisti-Ong”, il Giornale and even Movimento 5 Stelle4)Pomigliano (NA) – Ong e migranti, Di Maio: “Basta coi taxi del Mediterraneo”, Youtube , normally more neutral on immigration issues, while Prime Minister Gentiloni has opted to let the judicial system run its course.5)Ong, Gentiloni: “Preziose, ma magistratura vada avanti”. Alfano: “Piena ragione a Zuccaro”, La Stampa
Yet, a new element will further exacerbate the situation; George Soros, a billionaire who is incredibly active politically on both sides of the Atlantic,met in secrecy with Prime Minister Gentiloni,6)Quell’incontro a Palazzo Chigi tra Soros e il premier Gentiloni, Il Giornale less than a week after the latter had commented on the NGOs activities. The meeting was not listed on the website of the Italian government as official and its timing is at the very least suspicious.

References   [ + ]

1. Traffickers may pay some NGOs, Catania prosecutor, ANSA med
2. Caso ONG, la ricostruzione di Maurizio Gasparri , Youtube
3. Migranti, Salvini al governo “Fuori il dossier scafisti-Ong”, il Giornale
4. Pomigliano (NA) – Ong e migranti, Di Maio: “Basta coi taxi del Mediterraneo”, Youtube
5. Ong, Gentiloni: “Preziose, ma magistratura vada avanti”. Alfano: “Piena ragione a Zuccaro”, La Stampa
6. Quell’incontro a Palazzo Chigi tra Soros e il premier Gentiloni, Il Giornale

It is not the problem that bothers us but the perception of it

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Boris Vladimirski “Roses for Stalin” (1949)
photo Boris Vladimirski “Roses for Stalin” (1949)
Recently the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs has seen itself called out to address some of the burning issues rankling the Swedish society.1)All quotes from: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden, Government Offices in Sweden.It is made in the form of questions or claims that arise on the part of the Swedes on the other hand and the government’s responses on the other. Reading through it, someone who spent half his life under a similar, socialist/Marxist system like the writer of this text, cannot fight off the impression of experiencing a déjà vu, since a few decades ago in central Europe in Comecon countries, you would watch TV informing you about nice weather, then look out of the window and see rain coming down in sheets. We were used to it. We even developed a strategy of interpreting the official communiques in a specific way, which basically meant reading the messages backwards, and construing good as bad and the other way round. So when I saw the document issued by the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, my socialist past came back to me like it was yesterday. Let us delve into the text.

References   [ + ]

1. All quotes from: Facts about migration and crime in Sweden, Government Offices in Sweden.

The diaspora of young Italians

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photo Giuliano Poletti By EU2016 SK [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons
photo Giuliano Poletti By EU2016 SK [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons
Guest Author: Daniel Moscardi

Michele Valentini was the perfect nobody from nowhere. Even in his sleepy little town of Tarcento, tucked away in the north-eastern corner of Italy not far from the Slovenian border, anyone hardly remembers him. Quiet and mild-mannered, thirty-years-old Michele was the kind of person you would not expect to do anything that would bring the spotlight on him.

But he did, last February. He took his own life, leaving behind a long letter to his parents in which he explains the reasons for his choice of saying farewell to a society which he could no longer bear to live in.1)La lettera di Michele che si è ucciso a trent’anni perchè stanco del precariato e di una vita fatta di rifiuti, Messagero 2017-02-07.

Michele Valentini’s malaise was the infectious disease common to millions of other young – and not so young – Italians: the inability – better, the impossibility – of landing a decent, steady job. It can be officially defined as quiet desperation.

The letter was a final, desperate j’accuse towards society in general and the current Italian government in particular, since Michele chose to end his letter with a sardonic remark specifically directed at the current Italian Minister of Labour and Social Policies Giuliano Poletti.

References   [ + ]

1. La lettera di Michele che si è ucciso a trent’anni perchè stanco del precariato e di una vita fatta di rifiuti, Messagero 2017-02-07.

Gefira #13 for investors: Europe’s future is about demographics and energy depletion

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According to the media, our continent is beset with problems caused by the euro, Italian banks, the future of the European Union, Brexit, the rise of right-wing parties and the imminent threat of Russian invasion of the Baltic states or Poland. These are but petty or make-believe problems or, to put it in plain English, these are just narratives that the European establishment is using to explain its inability to avert the impending disaster and disintegration of the multi-ethnic societies.

The European governments relinquished their control over their borders and their monetary policy to Brussels (i.e. renounced sovereignty), which is run by unelected civil servants, so now they are not able to act. Neo-liberal privatization of such facilities as electricity companies, highways and railroads whose operation is often outsourced to foreign companies serving other interests than those of the European people exacerbates the lack of governance in Europe..

The EU establishment believes that the free markets and regulations will solve Europe’s energy problems. The transition to renewables is far from sufficient to replace traditional energy resources in the foreseeable future. Russia remains the largest energy provider as it satisfies 30% of Europe’s oil, 30% of Europe’s coal, and 40% of Europe’s gas demand.

Turkey is indispensable to Europeans if they want to be connected to alternative gas fields in the East, so they cannot afford to have hostile relations with the Ottomans in Ankara and the Tsars in Moscow. Yet, we know from history that the Europeans have always feared more their fellow Christians in Moscow than the Muslims from the Middle East. For some unknown reason they rather like to subjugate themselves to Islamists than have cordial relations with the Russian, even if dictatorial, rulers.

The European population is in decline, its fertility is 1.5. Every next generation will be 25% smaller. Judging by the numbers, it is clear that in the long run Europeans will cease to exist. With shrinking energy resources, a reduced European population (in 1950 it numbered 446 million) would not be a bad idea if it were not for Africa’s skyrocketing population growth and the fact that many Africans are relocating to Europe, giving up on their otherwise fertile continent which is rich in resources. While there is a lot of discussion about immigration, NGO’s are smuggling Africans into Europe on an industrial scale with the European establishment’s assent. Europe is on its way to start the biggest (apart from the Bolshevik one in Russia) social-engineering experiment in history, labelled by some as the “grand replacement”.

In Gefira #13 we discuss the future of Europe’s demographics and energy resources. We also focus our attention on big data. As the Internet and information technology is becoming more important than television, power struggle will not be limited to the real world, and since profiling, manipulation and hacking, cyberwar, cyber espionage and cyber subversion are part and parcel of today’s Machiavellian scheming, our Gefira team will cover it all in relation to a long-term investment perspective. Subscribe or Download


Islam or nature, how the opponents of European migration policy escaped prosecution

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Although the French society is based on laïcité, a full separation of state and church, Islamic attacks in France and the radicalization of the highly unemployable Islamic youth have prompted President François Hollande to call for an “Islam of France”,1)Hollande: Republic must create ‘Islam of France’ to respond to terror threat, CNN 2016-09-08.which aims at appealing to its believers to incorporate the revolutionary values on which the French society is based of liberté, égalité, fraternité into their religious faith.

The secular faith that all men are created equal is the bedrock of the thinking of the Western establishment and one of the postulates all Western sociology is founded on. This conviction is not only upheld by the so-called “left”, but it has become the cornerstone of Western economic theories. Present-day investors do not see ethnicity, culture, religion or race as a key factor in a country’s economic growth and progress. Rather, they believe that people are clean slates, that external factors alone contribute to their advancement and, such is the narrative, if countries open up their borders, allow free trade and implement the rule of law, then their populations pick up required skills, adopt Western solutions and with the aid of education set themselves on the path of development.

References   [ + ]

1. Hollande: Republic must create ‘Islam of France’ to respond to terror threat, CNN 2016-09-08.

Italy to outmaneuver ECB with parallel currency

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photo Petrus Christus , St Eligius in His Workshop [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
photo Petrus Christus , St Eligius in His Workshop [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
Italy is no stranger to financial crises. They came in all forms and shapes which included insolvent states, a chain reaction collapse of the banking system and a liquidity crisis of the then international currency, the golden Florentine florin. Without going too much into details, in 1345 the Kingdom of England and the government of Florence went insolvent; to pay for their respective wars against France and Verona they had borrowed enormous sums from the giants of banking of the time, the Bardi and the Peruzzi. Their inability to pay back resulted in a 1.5-million-florin hole and the subsequent bankruptcy of the two banks, which entailed a chain reaction that dragged down all the others.

Almost seven centuries later, Italy, together with Greece and many others, is again on the verge of insolvency, with the international banking system in dire straits, posed for another catastrophe. As if that was not enough, the euro, an overvalued currency for Italy and the weak economies of Spain, Portugal, France but also Finland, the austerity policy enforced by the European Commission acting under the pressure of the main gainer of the common currency, Germany; and the ECB’s completely ineffectual quantitative easing policy,1)QE in Europe is an embarrassment: 18 QE euros generate a growth of 1 euro, Gefira 2016-09-23. coupled with the regulatory system to top it all are unable to boost the real economy in Southern Europe. Conversely, all these elements prevent any kind of recovery and result in a perpetual state of stagnation.

References   [ + ]

1. QE in Europe is an embarrassment: 18 QE euros generate a growth of 1 euro, Gefira 2016-09-23.

We woke up another day and we found ourselves at war

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photo shutterstock.com
photo shutterstock.com
Wars are preceded by orchestrated incidents. It took the USS Maine to be sunk to allow the United States to enter a war against Spain; then RMS Lusitania had to be sunk to prod the United States to participate in World War One; World War Two required the sinking of a number of US warships at Pearl Harbor; the Gulf of Tonkin incident allowed Americans to intensify their presence in Vietnam; President Bush needed the twin towers of the World Trade Center to tumble down to have the right pretext for the war against Afghanistan; President Bush senior used the hearsay that Baghdad stored weapons of mass destruction to invade Iraq; President Clinton needed mass graves and concentration camps to give the poor Serbs a sound thrashing; President Barrack Hussein Obama almost began escalating war in Syria after reports on poison gas use against civilians; based on similar reports, President Donald Trump did not shy away from giving the order to launch missiles against President Assad’s troops. So it goes.

When you need to win support of the people for a war, you have to shock them into action. Hence reports of insidious attacks, heinous atrocities and use of prohibited weapons that the enemy has allegedly resorted to. The most potent of them all is the suffering-children card; it was used during World War One: German soldiers allegedly thrust their bayonets through Belgian children’s bodies’; it was used in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq: Iraqi soldiers allegedly disconnected incubators with new-born babies in Kuwait, thus bringing about their instant death; it was used to make Europeans accept the flood of the Third World masses: the visual media bombarded them with the picture of a drowned boy. Now the same trump card has been used by Trump, the president: he pours his heart out to the sorry plight of – how on earth otherwise – children.

Never mind the prospective detente with Russia; never mind the election promises of pulling America out of policing the world; never mind the gratuitousness of a poison gas attack: someone in Washington saw it fit to take action and action was taken. Qui prodest?


Heresies or Inexplicable Collective Behaviour

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photo Anglo-Saxon Migration in the 5th century By my work [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
photo Anglo-Saxon Migration in the 5th century By my work [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons
As we watch the so-called migration crisis, we pose to ourselves questions. What’s the sense, what’s the purpose? We are told we need workforce, yet there are millions of unemployed young Europeans; we are told we are paying for the sins of the yesteryear of colonialism, yet drawing people from the Third World, we strip the countries of origin of brains and hands i.e. act as colonialists. We are told these are refugees, yet we must get down to work to integrate them as if refugees by definition were not people who plan on returning to their war-torn countries after the conflict is over. We are told the Third-World immigrants are enriching us, yet we observe street riots, crime rate increase, reinforced police units in our streets and a number of East European countries defending themselves from being blessed with this enrichment.


Africa’s gate to Europe: Operation Husky, again

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photo Karl Briullov Sacco di Roma 455 [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
photo Karl Briullov Sacco di Roma 455 [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
Guest Author: Daniel Moscardi

Vallombrosa is a unique place in Tuscany. Its founder, Saint Giovanni Gualberto, a Benedictine monk, chose this secluded place in the mountains 40 km east of Florence to lead a hermit-like existence, right after the year 1000, and with a restricted group of monks started his own monastic order, the Vallombrosani.

John Milton among many other travellers – found inspiration in Vallombrosa while traveling across Italy in 1638, and a marble inscription reminds tourists that here Milton put into writing his Paradise Lost. Vallombrosa is not a place for crowds; rather a place where to seek meditation and inspiration.

To me Vallombrosa represents memories from my childhood. It could be called a piece of my personal heimat, if you wish. Back in the 60’s, when a car was still a far-flung luxury for many Italian families of the working class, we would take the Sunday morning bus from the train station in Florence with some frugal lunch, and we were back in the city with the same bus in time for dinner. For me, as a child, that was the highlight of the week – or the month – as it was all that we could afford at the time as a holiday.


China – a powder keg

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photo ID1974 / Shutterstock.com
photo ID1974 / Shutterstock.com
The People’s Republic has 2,8 million troops at its disposal i.e. the world’s largest army. There are also 3,8 million reservists. For years China has been investing billions in its armed forces: in 2016 it was 216 billion dollars.1)Ranking der 15 Länder mit den weltweit höchsten Militärausgaben im Jahr 2015, de.statista.com.Only the United States can afford to spend more on armaments. The task that China has set itself is to be able to win regional wars, for China is in conflict with many of its neighbours.

A bone of contention in the high mountains
In July 2016 China’s ground forces encroached upon Indian territory,2)China marschiert über die indische Grenze ein – Indien reagiert mit Langmut, Epoch Time 28-07-2016.which was not an isolated event since the 1960 war on the Indian-Chinese border or rather a demarcation line that had been drawn by the withdrawing British Empire. As in 2005, India entered into a nuclear agreement with the United States, China perceived it as a hostile act. On the other hand India did not like the fact that China leased a whole island from the Maldives, where it intended to build a port for nuclear-powered submarines.3)Geheime Basis für Atom-U-Boote entdeckt, Spiegel Online 02-05-2008.The border conflict at the foot of the Karakorum should be seen as a part of a broader picture: Pakistan, India’s ally, has been battling against India in Kashmir for years.

References   [ + ]

1. Ranking der 15 Länder mit den weltweit höchsten Militärausgaben im Jahr 2015, de.statista.com.
2. China marschiert über die indische Grenze ein – Indien reagiert mit Langmut, Epoch Time 28-07-2016.
3. Geheime Basis für Atom-U-Boote entdeckt, Spiegel Online 02-05-2008.